In a new report, researchers document trends in shooting victimizations in Lansing, MI, before and after implementation of a program geared toward reducing cyclical and retaliatory gun violence and promoting community healing. Overall, shootings in Lansing fell after the implementation of the project, with some variations between years and communities.
The report, by researchers at Michigan State University (MSU) and Michigan Public Health Institute (MPHI), is published by Advance Peace Lansing, a program that uses evidence-based practices to engage with individuals affected by gun violence.
“Violence reduction initiatives such as Advance Peace Lansing must be understood and assessed within the broader context of shooting victimization trends,” says Paul Elam, chief strategy officer at MPHI, who coauthored the report. Elam is an expert whose work is promoted by the NCJA Crime and Justice Research Alliance, which is funded by the National Criminal Justice Association. “These trends offer critical insights into the patterns of shooting in a community, providing a foundational understanding of the problem.”
The Advance Peace Lansing program employs fellows to engage with the people most affected by gun violence. Its first program operated from October 2022 to March 2024, with 15 fellows working in southwest Lansing. A second program launched in July 2024 with 55 fellows working citywide in Lansing. Data collected for the report were provided by the Lansing Police Department and reflect fatal and non-fatal shooting incidents in the city. The report features an overview of shooting victimization trends in Lansing, including frequencies and percentage change by year, quarter, and sector.
Similar to national trends, fatal and non-fatal shootings in Lansing rose from 2019 to 2021, followed by an overall decrease in shootings from 2021 to 2024, with some variation between years. The pattern of shooting trends varied across the four sectors of the city: In the southwest and northeast, non-fatal shootings decreased continuously or saw no change from 2021 to 2024. In the northwest, non-fatal shootings rose in 2024, while in the southeast, non-fatal shootings rose in 2023, then declined in 2024.
The report also notes that:
- Similar to national estimates, most victims were male (80%) and Black (82%). Most victims were between 18 and 24 years old, with an average age of 28.
- Most shootings occurred between midnight and 4 a.m., and this timing held across sectors of the city and days of the week.
- In Lansing, shootings declined 19% in the 24 months after the launch of the first Advance Peace Lansing fellowship (i.e., October 2022 to September 2024): Fatal shootings fell 52% and non-fatal shootings decreased 10%.
- In the 24 months after the start of the first Advance Peace Lansing fellowship, shootings fell 33% in the southwest (i.e., fatal shootings declined 38% and non-fatal shootings decreased 33%). In the northwest, shootings declined 6%, in the northeast, they fell 40%, and there was no change in the southeast.
- Based on a visual inspection of neighborhoods in the southwest, shootings declined in some of most violent groups of blocks.
- In 2024, the Advance Peace Lansing team implemented a process for identifying cyclical and retaliatory shootings. That year, 25% of fatal shootings and 14% of non-fatal shootings were identified as cyclical and retaliatory in nature.
“The Advance Peace Lansing Peacemaker Fellowship is committed to ending gun violence and promoting neighborhood safety and social cohesion by investing in the healthy development and well-being of individuals at the center of gun violence,” notes Julie M. Krupa, assistant professor and associate director of undergraduate studies in MSU’s School of Criminal Justice, who coauthored the report. “Our analyses serve as an important step toward understanding the potential for our program to reduce gun violence.”
The program plans to build on this foundation with more comprehensive and rigorous studies to determine how to deepen understanding of how community-based violence interventions can contribute to safer communities.
Among the limitations of the report, the authors note that although their results are promising, they are based on descriptive analyses that do not account for potentially confounding factors. In addition, because base frequencies for shootings, particularly fatal shootings, were relatively low, the authors suggest that percentage change be interpreted with caution.
