Estimating Short-Term Increases in Electricity Generation and the Ability to Meet Growth in Power Demand
Anticipated growth in artificial intelligence (AI) development requires the buildout of additional power capacity at an exceptional scale and speed. Data center operators often prefer that this additional capacity comes from connections to the grid because such connections offer improved reliability, resilience, and cost-effectiveness compared with on-site generation alternatives. However, stakeholders have identified major challenges with the current grid, especially concerning the integration of large volumes of energy resources.
In this new RAND report, to better understand power-supply resource gaps, the authors assess potential increases in supply resources and propose a capacity metric that can be directly compared with load increases (e.g., increases in the number of AI data centers). They also estimate the United States’ current power capability to meet increasing loads by 2030 given the current capacity expansion plans for the contiguous United States.
Key Findings
- The authors estimate that currently planned nameplate resource additions will increase to 151 gigawatts (GW) of front-of-the-meter (FTM) generation capacity and 149 GW of behind-the-meter (BTM) generation capacity.
- The available capacity, in turn, will increase by approximately 82 GW. FTM additions will add approximately 33 GW of the net available capacity, while BTM additions will increase capacity by 49 GW to reduce grid peak loads. Net FTM capacity consists of 77 GW of additions minus 44 GW of planned retirements.
- The majority of currently planned FTM additional capacity is in the region administered by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT). The BTM additions are split among regions administered by ERCOT, regions administered by the Midcontinent Independent System Operator, and regions without an administrative authority.
Recommendations
- Prioritize FTM capacity that increases the reliability of the grid.
- Prioritize solutions with front-loading impact on expediting the integration of additional FTM capacity to the grid.
- Encourage the buildout of BTM resources.
- Focus on the buildout of BTM storage.
- Prioritize solutions that improve the efficiency of transmission planning and monitoring.
- Prioritize solutions that are flexible to differences across U.S. grids.
– Ismael Arciniegas Rueda, Henri van Soest, Hye Min Park, Austin Smidt, David Gill, Robin Wang, Kelly Klima, Aisha Najera, Published courtesy of RAND.
