By drawing connections between artificial intelligence (AI) and national power, the author of a new RAND paper proposes a strategy that the United States can begin assembling to thrive in a new era of competition. The author’s analysis begins with an argument that the world stands on the cusp of a defining technological revolution: the emergence of AI as (potentially) by far the most wide-ranging and influential general-purpose technology in human history. The resulting changes will play a major role in determining national fates and reshuffling the deck of global power.
Many studies and strategy documents have examined one aspect of this strategic challenge: the requirements for U.S. technological leadership, such as promoting world-leading AI models and developing the necessary infrastructure and technologies to power AI advances. Yet a rich historical literature makes it clear that, whatever technological breakthroughs such advances might achieve, the more-essential underlying qualities of nations are often decisive in shaping national power during such technological transitions.
The author’s core thesis is that the United States needs to instead begin thinking much more seriously about AI as a social phenomenon and discover the competitive implications of that perspective. Countries that lead the new era will not merely have the best AI models; they will take the necessary steps to make their societies more competitive. In the end, the competitive challenge of AI is primarily social, not technological.
– Michael J. Mazarr, Published courtesy of RAND.
