he U.S.-China relationship presents a complex array of foreign policy challenges that will have to be addressed when a new administration takes charge in Washington next year.
Among the critical issues that will be on the agenda in January when the next U.S. president is sworn in are economic tensions, Chinese military aggression in the Indo-Pacific region, the security of Taiwan, China’s relationship with Russia, its efforts to spread its influence around the globe, and its accelerating disinformation campaigns.
Three RAND experts shed some light on the state of U.S.-China relations and competition as the American electorate heads to the polls.
Kristen Gunness is a senior policy researcher at RAND, professor of policy analysis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School, and former Director of the Navy Asia Pacific Advisory Group at the Pentagon, with expertise in Chinese military, security, and foreign policy issues.
Shanshan Mei is a political scientist at RAND and former special assistant to the Chief of Staff of the Air Force for China and Indo-Pacific issues who has written widely on the People’s Liberation Army and Chinese defense modernization priorities.
Jennifer Bouey is Tang Chair for China Policy Studies, a senior policy researcher and epidemiologist at RAND, and a professor of policy analysis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School.
What are the most important foreign policy challenges facing the United States regarding China?
Kristen Gunness Among the most salient issues is China’s support for Russia. It is also crucial to address China’s influence operations and disinformation campaigns and to push back on and deter Chinese military aggression in the Indo-Pacific region.
Shanshan Mei First, the United States must ensure policy consistency toward China to inject a sense of predictability into both countries’ long-term policy planning processes. A stable bilateral relationship is in both countries’ interest. Second, U.S. foreign policy must define the end goal of “strategic competition” with China better. Third, the globalist push and the isolationist pull in the U.S. foreign policy pertaining to China must be balanced.
Jennifer Bouey The geopolitical rivalry with China has consumed significant American effort and resources—and remains a work in progress. This is the challenge of our times, not just for the United States and China, but also for the world. The United States must find ways to compete with China without compromising its own values, economy, and security. The challenge to the United States also includes maintaining channels for high-level meetings to negotiate on new threats (e.g., AI, biosecurity) and avoiding wars.
The geopolitical rivalry with China has consumed significant American effort and resources—and remains a work in progress.
How should the United States address the trade imbalances and economic tensions with China?
GunnessOne aspect that U.S. leaders could emphasize is more robust coordination with U.S. allies and partners on economic and technology issues, including investment restrictions and export controls.
Mei The securitization of economic and trade relations with China under both the Trump and Biden administrations has created leverage for the new administration to negotiate with China to create more favorable terms for U.S. businesses and interests going forward.
Bouey While tariffs on manufacturing and goods have scared away foreign investors in China and impacted China’s economy, they didn’t really help the United States or its allies’ economies. Alternatively, the United States could gain a better trade balance by advancing its strengths in the service sector in China instead of focusing narrowly on tariffs.
What steps should the United States be taking to maintain its military edge over China?
GunnessOne of the best ways for the United States to deter China and maintain its military edge is to bolster regional alliances and partnerships to promote military relationships with countries in the region, enhance ally and partner defenses, and increase the likelihood of U.S. military access to partner countries in the event of conflict.
Mei First, the United States should continue working to deepen its existing alliances and partnerships in the Indo-Pacific region. Second, it should aggressively recruit and incentivize STEM graduates to work for the government and the military and the defense industry. In the long run, the United States must invest in its K–12 educational system to ensure it has a robust talent pipeline.
Bouey The U.S. defense industry is unique in its scale, innovativeness, and involvement with the private sector. The United States should continue existing strategies, while modernizing its own military capabilities, enhancing cyber warfare capabilities and space-based assets, streamlining the procurement process, and taking steps to better understand the military capability gap between the United States and China.
What should the U.S. government be doing to protect American intellectual property and counteract cyber threats originating from China?
GunnessThe U.S. government should continue to invest in robust cyber defenses for key infrastructure and systems, including upgrading legacy systems that might not detect cyber intrusions. More coordination between U.S. government departments and offices could help to provide greater situational awareness of Chinese cyber activities and allow for coordinated approaches to counteracting them.
Mei The United States should design and implement a “national security education initiative/program” for American for-profit entities working in sensitive industries that are targeted by China. It also should accelerate the implementation of zero-trust strategies across the government.
Bouey The U.S. government should focus on improving threat detection and response capabilities, strengthening public-private partnerships in cybersecurity, and investing in advanced technologies to defend against evolving cyber threats. International coalitions to establish and enforce global norms against cyber theft should be established and diplomatic channels should be leveraged.
How should the U.S. approach the issue of Taiwan, especially in light of China’s military assertiveness near and around Taiwan?
GunnessThe U.S. approach to Taiwan should focus on actions that can bolster Taiwan’s defenses, as well as those of Japan and other regional U.S. allies and partners. Augmenting U.S. power projection capabilities is also important in deterring China. In addition, the United States should monitor the level of tension between China and Taiwan and carefully calibrate visits and statements about Taiwan to avoid exacerbating tensions when possible.
Mei Taiwan’s vibrant democracy is inherently volatile, and its domestic politics ultimately drive its policy toward China—and toward the United States. The U.S. approach to the issue must not be shaped purely by military calculations; it also should increase political and diplomatic efforts to define and defend U.S. strategic interests.
Bouey The U.S. approach to Taiwan should emphasize soft power while maintaining effective deterrence. Simultaneously, the United States should maintain its policy of strategic ambiguity while ensuring its military capabilities in the region remain credible. Diplomatic efforts should focus on encouraging cross-strait dialogue and fostering an environment where peaceful resolution remains the only viable option.
How can the United States counter China’s efforts to grow its global influence through soft power initiatives?
GunnessU.S. soft power can compete with Chinese efforts to build influence, but the United States should not necessarily feel that it must match China dollar for dollar or in all locations. Instead, the United States should focus on key sectors and locations to prioritize where its efforts would have the greatest comparative advantage and enable the most strategic gain.
Mei The best offensive in terms of countering Chinese global influence is “defensive” in nature: the United States needs to refocus on strengthening its democratic institutions and actively engage social media stakeholders in the United States to develop better strategies to safeguard against AI-powered disinformation campaigns.
Bouey The United States has been the leader in global development. If the United States maintains its values while better understanding the recipient countries’ needs for economic transformation, its soft power can counter China’s influence. To reduce the “disruptive” incidents related to emerging donors, the United States and other Western donors should work toward engaging new donors in existing international frameworks for development assistance.
U.S. soft power can compete with Chinese efforts to build influence, but the United States should not necessarily feel that it must match China dollar for dollar or in all locations.
How can the United States deal with China’s territorial claims and military activities in the South China Sea?
GunnessThe stronger U.S.-Philippine military relationship has likely given Chinese leaders pause on starting a kinetic conflict with a key U.S. ally. Other actions that could contribute to deterrence include enhancing the intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities of U.S. allies and partners. That might allow for better early detection of Chinese activity near disputed territory and make it easier to call out China’s behavior.
Mei The United States should develop counterstrategies with more precision—and avoid one-size-fit-all approaches. Deeper understanding of the needs and concerns of different allies and partners in the disputed geographic regions should be a priority for U.S. strategists and policy advisers.
Bouey Diplomatic efforts should focus on building international consensus against China’s excessive claims and supporting legal arbitration. Engaging in multilateral forums and promoting environmental cooperation can ensure that international waters remain open.
Are there any novel solutions out there that could make a difference for U.S. interests in the region?
Gunness The United States should encourage allies and partners to invest in defensive systems, such as missile defense or unmanned systems, that could make it more difficult for China in the event of a conflict. In addition, the United States should leverage regional relationships to increase the likelihood of military access in conflict.
Mei To deliver the intended strategic effects in the region, the United States should improve security coordination with partners and allies. It is also important to develop and maintain official and nonofficial channels and mechanisms to improve crisis management with adversaries backed by a well-thought-out assurance strategy.
Bouey The United States could collaborate with China and the region on health and climate issues, such as the ecology of infectious diseases. It could also pursue collaborations on green energy, swap tariffs for service sector market access, and return to multilateralism.
– Published courtesy of RAND.
